Tag: Investing (89 articles)

Bitcoin hasn't been falsified or disappeared — its narrative priority has simply been siphoned off by AI. Being forgotten is an observable phase of the cycle, and it tends to mark the bottom.

A country's money supply and withdrawal follow the residents' life cycle: issuance at birth, expansion at work, property at family formation, withdrawal at retirement. Four stations, and the super-long bull-bear cycles of property and equities finally have coordinates.

The first step in picking stocks is not finding great companies — it is eliminating the ones that die for certain — four rules, each bought with real money.

Every method that survives has a published price: long waits, heavy work, no lottery tickets, and misses even when the calls are right. Those costs are the definition, not the defect.

Pharma is not one track but four businesses: blood products live on license-driven supply rigidity, traditional Chinese medicine on inventory cycles, innovative drugs on R&D spending, generics on centralized-procurement cycles. Same sector, entirely different scripts — ask which bowl each lane eats from before asking how long to hold.

Financial freedom is not a number; it is not having to do, for money, what one would rather not do. Everyone keeps the account's ledger; almost nobody keeps the calendar's. Two ledgers record one life — don't pay one's winnings against the other's debt.

Forty years of market economy in four faces: material scarcity, channel premium, traffic and branding, AI automation. Whoever reigns in each era decides what belongs in the track pool.

The efficient market is a textbook assumption; the real Mr. Market is a manic-depressive whose quotes are often laughably absurd. The market's irrationality is not a flaw — it is the entire source of long-term returns. Cure the market's illness and you kill the returns with it.

Learning to invest is not collecting facts but installing an operating system in dependency order: four core courses read in sequence, two electives, and no substitute for the loop.

A society that compressed two hundred years into thirty pushed ordinary people into the one narrow door left: speculation. Cycles change the asset; the fate doesn't.

Ten years at the same charts, two different outcomes: the difference is not effort but the object of study — the cards, or the players.

British railways, 2000-era fiber, today's compute: three bubbles on one path. The bubble kills companies and leaves infrastructure behind. The companies didn't die because the technology was wrong — they died because the price was.