No Core Position, No Wealth
Accounts rarely fail because of stock picking. They fail because three kinds of money get merged into one.
4 min readInvesting
Baijiu Is a Cyclical Asset Too
Demand for baijiu never went away; what cycles is the financial layer stacked on top of the drinking. Want to know if a commodity has entered its speculative phase? Watch how much of it gets hoarded.
3 min readInvesting
Knowing When to Sell Beats Knowing What to Buy.
The moment that decides whether you win or lose rarely happens at entry — selling is not the epilogue of buying, it is a craft of its own.
4 min readInvesting
Ask Whose Writing It Is, and It Says Whoever You Suggest
The same article, asked whether AI wrote it: yes. Asked whether a human wrote it: also yes. That is not detection — that is compliance. AI detection is barely credible today.
3 min readTech
Even Actuaries Can't Predict the Future
Insurance prices the future, and nobody can predict the future. The business survives on cushion, not accuracy.
4 min readInvesting
The Existence of Sales
Sales isn't the disease — it's the disease setting off alarms.
3 min readBusiness
Refuse to Change, and It's Over
Two men named Wang An, nine centuries apart, one diagnosis.
4 min readBusinessSociety
Rearview-Mirror Epistemology
Before the cards are turned, every judgment is a rearview mirror.
3 min readInvestingEconomySociety
Open Source Is Immortality
Ten nines of reliability, and the flakiest component is still me.
3 min readTechSociety
This Didn't Have to Happen
A 90-minute window; a 5-second run.
4 min readSociety
Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful, Written as Code
Fear isn't a day; it's a structure.
4 min readInvestingEconomy
Don't Ask Where the Money Went, Ask Where the Dog Is
The Dog-Takes-the-Money Theorem: from a punchline to a universal formula.
5 min readInvestingEconomy