The Life Cycle of Money
A country's money supply and withdrawal follow the residents' life cycle: issuance at birth, expansion at work, property at family formation, withdrawal at retirement. Four stations, and the super-long bull-bear cycles of property and equities finally have coordinates.
4 min readInvesting
Clear the Mines Before You Talk Value
The first step in picking stocks is not finding great companies — it is eliminating the ones that die for certain — four rules, each bought with real money.
4 min readInvesting
The Method That Publishes Its Own Price List
Every method that survives has a published price: long waits, heavy work, no lottery tickets, and misses even when the calls are right. Those costs are the definition, not the defect.
4 min readInvesting
Four Lanes, Four Scripts in Pharma
Pharma is not one track but four businesses: blood products live on license-driven supply rigidity, traditional Chinese medicine on inventory cycles, innovative drugs on R&D spending, generics on centralized-procurement cycles. Same sector, entirely different scripts — ask which bowl each lane eats from before asking how long to hold.
4 min readInvesting
Investing Is the Means, Living Is the End
Financial freedom is not a number; it is not having to do, for money, what one would rather not do. Everyone keeps the account's ledger; almost nobody keeps the calendar's. Two ledgers record one life — don't pay one's winnings against the other's debt.
4 min readInvesting
The Day the Martini Shrank
Fifteen years of Thursdays, settled by one downsized martini.
4 min readMarketing
The Market Has Worn Four Faces
Forty years of market economy in four faces: material scarcity, channel premium, traffic and branding, AI automation. Whoever reigns in each era decides what belongs in the track pool.
4 min readInvesting
Mr. Market Is Manic-Depressive
The efficient market is a textbook assumption; the real Mr. Market is a manic-depressive whose quotes are often laughably absurd. The market's irrationality is not a flaw — it is the entire source of long-term returns. Cure the market's illness and you kill the returns with it.
4 min readInvesting
A Million Jobs Won't Save a Casino
No amount of employment justifies a business that profits from addiction.
3 min readMarketingEconomy
Loyalty Does Not Expire When the System Does
Loyalty is the first mover's most valuable asset — and the easiest money users ever pay to the wrong account.
3 min readMarketing
Low Money Is Still Money
An ad researcher holding Pinduoduo stock gets offended daily by its own ads. Both facts together reveal the business.
3 min readBusiness
The Order Is the Knowledge
Learning to invest is not collecting facts but installing an operating system in dependency order: four core courses read in sequence, two electives, and no substitute for the loop.
4 min readInvesting