Lead Users Know Tomorrow's Demand First
Lead users are already solving their own pain points; sticky information is there for the taking.
4 min readMarketing
Koreans Aren't Born Gamblers.
A society that compressed two hundred years into thirty pushed ordinary people into the one narrow door left: speculation. Cycles change the asset; the fate doesn't.
4 min readInvesting
Winners Study the Crowd, Losers Study the Stock
Ten years at the same charts, two different outcomes: the difference is not effort but the object of study — the cards, or the players.
4 min readInvesting
The Bubble Died, the Rails Remained
British railways, 2000-era fiber, today's compute: three bubbles on one path. The bubble kills companies and leaves infrastructure behind. The companies didn't die because the technology was wrong — they died because the price was.
3 min readInvesting
A Sector Comes in Three Waves
A sector upgrade arrives in three waves: base stations first, equipment next, the device-upgrade cycle last. Each wave crowns a different protagonist — ask which wave it is before asking what to hold.
4 min readInvesting
The Data Executes the Hypotheses, and Apologizes to No One
In a 137-person study, three industry instincts were reversed by the data; hypotheses dying first is the purpose of research, not an accident.
3 min readMarketing
Easy to Take a Booking, Hard to Keep It
Anyone can accept a reservation; keeping it is the reservation. That is where service fails.
4 min readMarketing
The Birthday Greeting That Sells Nothing
Fifteen years ago every birthday greeting carried a pitch; today's best practice sells nothing. Every touchpoint posts to an account: a pitched greeting withdraws, a pitch-free one deposits.
3 min readMarketing
A Good Company Is Not a Good Stock
A good stock equals a good company plus an undervalued gap; paying any price for a great company is the most common form of pseudo-value investing.
4 min readInvesting
Fundamentals Are the Part That Doesn't Change
Fundamentals are not last quarter's earnings sheet — they are whether this business still opens its doors tomorrow. Short-term results are noise; permanent damage is the signal.
4 min readInvesting
Four Cycles, One Nest
The economy doesn't oscillate in one cycle. It stacks four cycles whose time scales differ by an order of magnitude. The layer you trade in decides which indicators you should watch.
3 min readInvesting
Direction Is Right; Stay Inside the Lines
Above stock-picking sit four iron rules: nation sets the floor, rates set the ratio, coordinates set value, discipline sets restraint. Method decides how much you make; the rules decide whether you live to settle.
4 min readInvesting